Scaling and Market Saturation




According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 653,104 Americans were homeless in 2023, which represents a 12.1% increase from the previous year

The Two Towers design proposes a project with 100 residential units designed for a household of one to three people with a floating percentage set aside as vacation homes. I imagine you probably need at least ten percent vacation homes but my legal notice says you need to make at least half as primary residences.

So trying to crunch some numbers and estimate potential market demand and market saturation is tricky. It gets further complicated because the entire US lacks sufficient affordable housing, which means a lot of people who aren't homeless would want to move someplace cheaper if they could find it and those people are likely to be the lion's share of initial residents because they are more qualified for being approved.

Homelessness has many causes and it isn't always about lack of income per se. Some homeless people make good money but have a criminal record which prevents them from getting into a rental agreement, so they spend far more money living in hotels than an apartment would cost.

But figures on homelessness are a place to start estimating demand for affordable housing. Based on more than half a million homeless plus knowing there's more people in housing they find burdensome financially, I think a good faith ball park estimate is we could easily fill a million new affordable housing units, and that suggests a minimum of 10,000 Two Towers projects because some of those units will be vacation homes.

We also have torn down a million SROs since the 1950s, so that figure nicely backs up that estimate as a FLOOR for what we NEED. So I think we could build 10k such projects before we need to worry about market saturation as a threat to the business model.

The intent is for passive solar design to be used and daylighting. These things are site specific and climate specific.

This means you can't simply draw up one single plan for The Two Towers, print them out by the thousands and sell them.

But you could draw up half a dozen or a dozen with specific climates in mind and variations for the orientation of the piece of land and describe those details in a magazine or sales book and potentially sell them by the hundreds apiece.